But the theory behind “fundamentals” models is that economic conditions prevail because most other factors are fought to a draw. In a normal presidential election, both candidates raise essentially unlimited money and staff their campaigns with hundreds of experienced professionals. In a normal presidential election, both candidates are good representatives of their party’s traditional values and therefore unite almost all their party’s voters behind them. In a normal presidential election, both candidates have years of experience running for office and deftly pivot away from controversies to exploit their opponents’ weaknesses. In a normal presidential election, both candidates target a broad enough range of demographic groups to have a viable chance of reaching 51 percent of the vote. This may not be a normal presidential election because while most of those things are true for Clinton, it’s not clear that any of them apply to Trump.Exactly what I have been saying: Trump fundamentally sucks, as he has:
- Not much of an organization, and one that seems to keep popping out complete amateurs.
- Not much money.
- No discipline, which means he keeps reinforcing mistakes.
- Alienated 50% plus of the population: African-Americans, Hispanics, women, Jews, Asian-Americans, Mormons (hey, that's new!), LGBTQ, Native Americans and on and on.
- A divided party to say the least, which has lead to:
- A very weak bench of surrogates--Guliani and Gingrich? Please.
- A professional campaign organization
- A strong digital game--the tweets and videos are quite good.
- Heaps of discipline as the campaign has been smart enough to stay out of Trump's way of making messes
- Appealed broadly to traditional Democratic constituencies and opening the door to GOP defections.
- Has a unified and deep bench starting with Bill, the President (who is very popular these days), Michelle Obama, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden and scores of others.
I would say that the next major point in the campaign are the debates except for two things--there may be no debates if Trump cowers away from them, and Trump may have seven more blowups over random things before then.
Just a reminder that folks worrying about what might happen if Trump loses are spending their time better than those who worry about Trump winning.